Michael Saylor’s bold prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) will grow at an average annual interest rate of 29% over the next 21 years, reaching a staggering $13 million by 2045, has sparked both excitement and skepticism among cryptocurrency enthusiasts. As the founder of Diaman, I would like to provide a more nuanced analysis of this prediction and offer my own projections based on the "Rate of Adoption" model.
The Rate of Adoption Model
This model correlates Bitcoin’s price with the growth rate of non-zero wallets, which contain at least a fraction of Bitcoin. In February 2020, I first presented this model at the Quant Workshop Conference, organized by Diaman Partners Ltd., and later updated it in 2023 for publication in Cointelegraph.
Comparison to Saylor’s Projection
While Michael Saylor predicts an average annual return over the next 21 years, our model uses a more sophisticated power law approach. This method relates the average price per wallet to the number of non-zero wallets in circulation. The multiplication of these variables provides the expected market capitalization of Bitcoin, from which it’s easy to derive the price.
Our Projections
Using this power law approach, our calculations indicate that by 2045, Bitcoin’s price could reach $8.3 million on the median curve. On the higher curve, driven by the semi-exponential surge marking the end of each bullish cycle, it could exceed $21.6 million.
The Importance of Long-Term Holding
It is essential to remain aware of Bitcoin’s potential trajectory, as the market is filled with individuals who settle for gains of +60% or +100%, only to exit too early and miss out on subsequent extraordinary price increases. While I’m not suggesting holding Bitcoin indefinitely, it should undoubtedly be held for as many years as possible, or at least until it becomes clear that it will be replaced by something more attractive and functional (which, as of today, does not exist).
2025 Forecast: A Relative Peak
Considering the increased adoption driven by Bitcoin ETFs, our 2025 forecast for Bitcoin’s peak price is $261,000, nearly double the previous estimate.
A Word of Caution
Of course, there are no guarantees that these values will materialize, nor should this be considered investment advice. I always recommend conducting thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions, ideally with a qualified financial adviser who can guide you on the appropriate allocation within your portfolio.
The Dynamics of Bitcoin’s Price
Looking at the chart above, you’ll notice that even with Bitcoin hitting all-time highs, we are still far from the upper boundary projected to mark the relative peak for 2025. As I always say:
Everyone gets the Bitcoin price they deserve.
As a serial entrepreneur and founder of Diaman, a group active in investment management, software development, and crypto activities, I’ve had the privilege of working with various stakeholders in the cryptocurrency space. My European and Russian Patent in the field of mobile payments has also been recognized by the European Patent Office as an "Inventor."
Conclusion
While Michael Saylor’s prediction is certainly bold, our own projections based on the Rate of Adoption model suggest that Bitcoin’s price could reach $8.3 million to $21.6 million by 2045. However, it’s essential to remain cautious and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
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Explore More Articles Like This
For those interested in learning more about Bitcoin’s potential trajectory, I recommend exploring some of our previous articles:
- "The Rate of Adoption Model: A New Approach to Predicting Bitcoin’s Price"
- "Why You Should Hold Bitcoin for the Long-Term"
- "The Impact of Bitcoin ETFs on Market Volatility"
These articles offer a more in-depth look at the factors that influence Bitcoin’s price and provide valuable insights for investors looking to make informed decisions.
Stay Informed, Stay Ahead
As the cryptocurrency market continues to evolve, it’s essential to stay informed about the latest developments and trends. By subscribing to our newsletter and exploring our previous articles, you’ll be well-equipped to navigate the complexities of this rapidly changing space.
Stay ahead of the curve and make informed decisions with confidence. Subscribe now and take your first step towards becoming a more successful investor in the world of cryptocurrencies.
