The Rise of Solana ETF Listings: Optimism Runs High
In a recent post on X platform, Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, expressed optimism about the prospects of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year. According to Sigel, the odds of such an event occurring are even higher than what was forecasted by Polymarket, a popular cryptocurrency prediction platform.
Polymarket’s Forecast: A 77% Chance of Success
As of January 1st, Polymarket predicted that the chances of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 were around 77%. However, Sigel believes that this forecast is "underpriced." This optimism mirrors the industry-wide expectation of more crypto ETF listings in the US following President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win.
The Trump Effect: A Green Light for Crypto ETFs
During his presidential campaign, Trump expressed his desire to make America "the world’s crypto capital." This statement has been seen as a positive sign by many in the industry, who believe that it could lead to more favorable regulations for cryptocurrency-related businesses. In fact, prediction markets work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events, with prices fluctuating dynamically based on expected outcomes.
A Rise in Optimism: Polymarket’s Odds Increase
As of January 2nd, Polymarket’s projected ETF listing odds increased to approximately 84% according to its website. This increase in optimism reflects the growing confidence among investors and industry experts that a Solana ETF listing will occur this year.
VanEck and 21Shares: Seeking Regulatory Approval
In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares submitted applications to list spot Solana ETFs to US regulators. However, their plans were reportedly challenged by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in August. The SEC expressed concerns that SOL qualified as a security rather than a commodity.
The Grantor Trust Structure: A Key Factor
Issuers of proposed Solana ETFs believe that success may hinge on whether they can conform to a similar structure used by Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs, which are the only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to trade on US exchanges. The grantor trust structure is typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity.
Industry Analysts See Trump’s Win as a Green Light
Industry analysts see President-elect Trump’s victory as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US. In November, shortly after Trump’s win, Sigel reportedly said that the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now "overwhelmingly high."
Polymarket: A Popular Cryptocurrency Betting Platform
Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, clocking nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone according to data from Dune Analytics. During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
Bullish Bettors: A Banner Year for Cryptocurrency Markets
Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, with BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several new types of crypto ETFs listing in the US. This optimism is reflected in Polymarket’s forecast, which suggests that the chances of a Solana ETF listing are higher than ever before.
A Changing Landscape: How Crypto Laws Are Evolving
As the cryptocurrency industry continues to grow and evolve, regulatory frameworks are also changing. Magazine articles have reported on how crypto laws are changing across the world in 2025, with many countries adopting more favorable regulations for cryptocurrency-related businesses.
Conclusion
The odds of a Solana ETF listing in the US this year are even higher than Polymarket’s forecast, according to Sigel. This optimism is reflected in the industry-wide expectation of more crypto ETF listings following President-elect Trump’s election win. With Polymarket’s projected ETF listing odds increasing to approximately 84%, it appears that bettors are confident that a Solana ETF will list this year.
Recommendations
- Investors interested in cryptocurrency-related businesses should monitor regulatory developments closely.
- Bettors should continue to track Polymarket’s forecasts and adjust their bets accordingly.
- Industry experts believe that the grantor trust structure could be key to success for proposed Solana ETFs.
Sources
- Polymarket
- Dune Analytics
- Magazine: How crypto laws are changing across the world in 2025
